Natural Gas in Underground Storage

The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report advised that there was a  withdrawal (the first of the winter) of 134Bcf (billion cubic feet) from Underground Storage for the week ending November 16th, 2018.

This is 25Bcf above the median forecast of a 109Bcf withdrawal, the average prediction of sector analysts and traders in the Dow Jones Newswires weekly survey. The withdrawal compares with -42Bcf last year and -25Bcf for the five-year average. Storage is 620Bcf below last year for the same week and 710Bcf below the 5-year average. Working gas in storage stands at 3,113Bcf.

Natural Gas Pricing


As of 11:05AM CST, December  2018, (the prompt month) Natural Gas was trading at $4.69, +$0.62 from one week ago and the 1-Year Spread average was $3.37, +$0.25 from one week ago.

Crude Oil Pricing


As of 9:30AM CST, December, 2018, (the prompt month) Light, Sweet Crude on the NYMEX was at $54.28, -$2.78 from one week ago.

Crude Oil Inventory


US crude inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels to  446.9 million barrels for the week ended November 16th, according to data released this morning by the US Department of Energy. Traders in the Reuters poll projected an increase of 2.5 million barrels.

U.S. Rotary Rigs


U.S. Rotary Rigs drilling for natural gas were -1 at 194 for the week of November 16th. The number of rigs currently drilling for Natural Gas was +17 from last year. US Rigs drilling for oil were +2 at 888. There are 150 more rigs targeting oil than last year. Canadian rigs were +1 at 197 for the week. Rigs targeting oil remain 82% of all US drilling activity.

Geopolitical


Establishing American “energy dominance” has been a key policy objective of the Trump Administration. Since coming to office, President Donald S. Trump has made increasing U.S. energy production and energy exports a priority. And for a time, it looked like he might pull it off.

Oil production has doubled since 2008. This year American oil output exceeded 10 million bpd for the first time in decades. Production from the shale revolution, particularly the Permian Basin of Texas, has been booming. Investment into new leases both onshore and off has increased, as the Trump Administration has opened up federal land and the entire coastal plain for drilling.

The EIA predicts that U.S. production will continue to rise, exceeding 11.5 million bpd in 2019. According to Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke and EPA chief Scott Pruitt in a June 2017 op-ed, energy dominance “means a self-reliant and secure nation, free from the geopolitical turmoil of other nations that seek to use energy as an economic weapon.”

Weather

The AccuWeather 1-5 day Outlook forecasts below-normal temps for the Eastern quarter of the US with the exception of Florida and the balance of the Southern Coastal states, as well. The balance of the country will be at normal or above-normal temps. The 6-10 Day Outlook forecasts Eastern 2/3 of the US at below-normal temps with the exception of the Northeast, which will be at normal temps. The balance of the country at either normal or above-normal temps.

11-15 Day Outlook  forecasts the Northeast quarter of the country at below-normal temps with the balance of the US at normal.temps. The 30-day Outlook projects normal temps for almost all of the US except the Western Great Lakes area and south through Missouri, which are expected to be above-normal. The 90-Day Outlook projects the entire country at normal temps with the exception of the Great Lakes area and a portion of the West.

There is no tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean at this time. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30.

Sustainability and Renewables


It Is Zero Hour For Net Zero Energy Buildings: When Silver Spring, Md. biotech firm United Therapeutics recently introduced a new building on its corporate campus, it spelled the latest triumph for the net-zero building movement. On an annual basis, Net Zero Energy (NZE) structures generate about as much new renewable energy on their sites as they consume. The result: Buildings that contribute fewer greenhouse gases to the environment than non-NZE buildings.

That’s an important benefit, given estimates that traditional buildings devour 40 percent of the total U.S. and European Union’s fossil fuel energy. Not surprisingly, traditional structures as a result substantially contribute to the buildup of greenhouse gases.

United Therapeutics, also known as Unither, aimed at achieving two goals with its new building. One was to advance its mission to create breakthrough products meeting the medical requirements of patients facing life-threatening or chronic conditions.

This Week's Key Take-Away


The Northeast will see the most abnormally cold weather on the planet on Thanksgiving as temperatures are set to plunge to their lowest levels in more than a century. Temperatures in the Northeast U.S. will drop to record lows on Thanksgiving as a punishing blast of Arctic air plunges south from Canada. The intensity of the cold in the Northeast, compared with normal, will be the most extreme on the planet.

The mercury will plunge about 20 to 30 degrees below normal. In some places, these temperatures will mark the coldest ever recorded not only on Thanksgiving but also in the entire month of November. This cold is truly anomalous, as much of the rest of Earth will experience higher-than-normal temperatures on the holiday.

In Boston for example, the high temperature on Thursday is predicted to be 22 degrees, which would be the coldest on record for Thanksgiving and 23 degrees below normal. It would also be the coldest high temperature ever recorded during the entire Thanksgiving week of Nov. 22-28.


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