Natural Gas in Underground Storage

The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report advised today that there was an injection of  55Bcf into Underground Storage for the week ending 8/2/19.

This is even with the forecast of a 55Bcf injection, the average prediction of sector analysts and traders in the Dow Jones Newswires weekly survey. This compares with an injection of 46Bcf last year and a 43Bcf injection for the five-year average. Storage is 343Bcf above last year for the same week and 111Bcf below the 5-year average. Working gas in storage stands at 2,689Bcf. (Read More ...)

Natural Gas Pricing


As of 9:42AM CST, September 2019, (the prompt month) Natural Gas was trading at $2.13, -$0.11 from one week ago and the 1-Year Spread average was $2.33, -$0.08 one week ago.

Crude Oil Pricing


As of 8:33AM CST, September, 2019, (the prompt month) Light, Sweet Crude on the NYMEX was at $52.41 -$4.05 from one week ago.

Crude Oil Inventory


US crude inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels to 438.9 million for the week ended August 2nd, according to data released yesterday morning by the US Dept of Energy. Traders in the Reuters poll projected a decrease of 2.8 million barrels.

U.S. Rotary Rigs


According to the Baker Hughes Count, US Rotary Rigs targeting Natural Gas were +2 at 171 for the week ending August 2nd and -12 from last year. Rigs targeting Crude were -6 at 770. There are 89 fewer rigs targeting oil than last year. US Rigs drilling for oil remain at 82% of all drilling activity.

Canadian Rigs were +9 at 137 and -86 from last year.

Geopolitical


July Confirmed as the Hottest Month Ever Recorded: (CNN) July 2019 has replaced July 2016 as the hottest month on record, with meteorologists saying that global temperatures marginally exceeded the previous record.

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Programme, which analyzes temperature data from around the planet, said that July was around 0.56 °C warmer than the global average temperature between 1981-2010. That's slightly hotter than July 2016, when the world was in the throes of one of the strongest El Niño events on record.

El Niño events are characterized by warming of the ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean and have a pronounced warming effect on the Earth's average temperature. Though there was a weak El Niño in place during the first part of 2019, it is transitioning to a more neutral phase, making the extreme July temperatures even more alarming.

Jean-Noël Thépaut, head of the Copernicus program, said: "While July is usually the warmest month of the year for the globe, according to our data it also was the warmest month recorded globally by a very small margin."

"With continued greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting impact on global temperatures, records will continue to be broken in the future," he added. According to Copernicus, 2015 through 2018 have been the four warmest years on record. April, May and July this year all ranked among the warmest on record for those months, and this June was the hottest ever (Read More ...)

Weather

The AccuWeather 1-5 Day Outlook forecasts above-normal temps for most of the deep South of the US from New Mexico to North Carolina, with the exception of Florida, which will be at normal temps. The North-Central states are projected to be at  below-normal temps, with normal temps for the balance of the country.

The 6-10 Day Outlook forecasts an almost identical forecast, adding above-normal temps for the West Coast. 

The 11-15 Day Outlook forecasts the Southwest and the Great Lakes area at above-normal temps, the North-Central states at below-normal temps, and the balance of the country at normal temps.

The 30-Day Outlook shows above-normal temps for much of the Western US, with the balance of the country at normal temps.

The 90-Day Outlook shows above-normal temps for the Far- Northwest, with the balance of the country at normal temps.

Severe Weather: Rain is predicted for much of the US through Saturday, with severe thunderstorms and flooding in the Northeast. Beginning Sunday, there is very little precipitation predicted. 

In Texas, San Antonio has only had one day with 100-degree temperatures so far this year. Dallas recorded its second 100-degree day yesterday. It is more typical for Dallas to have hit the century mark at least 8 or 9 times by early August. High temps are forecast to reach or exceed the 100-degree mark each day through Monday in these cities.

Sustainability and Renewables


US Electricity Generation by %, 1949-2019: Here’s a new animated “bar chart race” visualization using the online Flourish software, this one showing US electricity generation by energy source shares from 1949 to 2019 (through April) based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Here are few observations:
  1. Coal has historically been the largest energy source for America’s electricity generation and provided more than 40% of the nation’s electric power in every year between 1949 and 2011, and more than 50% in 43 of those 59 years.
  2. Although natural gas provided more than 20% of US electric power from 1959 to 1972 it provided less than 20% from 1973 to 2008, less than 15% of US electricity from 1982 and 2005 and a record low of less than 10% in 1988. In 2011, natural gas provided more than 25% of US electric power for the first time when oceans of shale gas were accessed for the first time in shale rock formations with revolutionary drilling and extraction technologies (hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling) and its share quickly surpassed coal. (Read More ...)

This Week's Key Take-Away


The EIA (Energy Information Administration) expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will rise from 34% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and then decline slightly in 2020. The EIA forecasts that the share of U.S. generation from coal will average 24% in 2019 and in 2020, down from 28% in 2018. The forecast nuclear share of U.S. generation remains at about 20% in 2019 and in 2020. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total U.S. generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other non-hydropower renewables together provided 10% of U.S. total utility-scale generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020.

The EIA forecasts that all renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower, will collectively produce 18% of U.S. electricity in 2019 and 19% in 2020. The Agency expects that annual generation from wind will surpass hydropower generation for the first time in 2019 to become the leading source of renewable electricity generation and maintain that position in 2020.