Natural Gas in Underground Storage

The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Report advised today that there was a draw of 109Bcf from Underground Storage for the week ending 1/10/20.

This is 14Bcf above the forecast of a 95Bcf draw, the average prediction of sector analysts and traders in the Dow Jones Newswires weekly survey. This compares with a draw of 108Bcf last year and a 184Bcf draw for the five-year average. Storage is 494Bcf above last year for the same week and 149Bcf above the 5-year average. Working gas in storage stands at 3,039Bcf. (Read More ...)

Natural Gas Pricing


As of 9:51AM CST, February 2020, (the prompt month) Natural Gas was trading at $2.15, +$0.01 from one week ago and the 1-Year Spread average was $2.31, -$0.02 from one week ago.

Crude Oil Pricing


As of 9:30AM CST, February, 2020, (the prompt month) Light, Sweet Crude on the NYMEX was at $58.42, -0.32 from one week ago.

Crude Oil Inventory


US crude inventories (EIA)   decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 428.5 million for the week ended January 10th, according to data released yesterday morning by the US Dept of Energy. Traders in the Reuters poll projected a decrease of 0.5 million barrels.

U.S. Rotary Rigs


According to the Baker Hughes Count, US Rotary Rigs targeting Natural Gas were -4 at 119 for the week ending January 10th and -83 from last year.

Rigs targeting Crude were -11 at 659. There are 214 fewer rigs targeting oil than last year. Canadian Rigs were +118 at 203 and +19 from last year. US Rigs drilling for oil remain at 84% of all drilling activity.

Geopolitical


Trump proposal to ship LNG by rail draws ire of state AGs: Attorneys general from 16 states have come out against a Trump administration proposal to ship liquefied natural gas by rail, arguing that potential leaks from the shipments pose risks of explosions.

AGs from California, New York and other states have filed comments urging the Department of Transportation to pull the proposal pending the completion of safety studies and the development of an environmental impact statement.
The American Association of Railroads, which supports shipping LNG by rail, says railroads move more than 99.99% of hazardous materials to their destination without releases caused by an incident, and the industry has worked to strengthen tank car standards.

New Fortress Energy hopes to liquefy gas from Pennsylvania and send it by rail to a not-yet-built terminal on the Delaware River for shipping to global markets, via a route that could take LNG through Philadelphia and Camden, N.J.
“The administration is bending to the will of the fossil fuel industry ... and it puts at risk neighborhoods, towns and cities across our nation,” said Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh.

It could also benefit rail operators, who have suffered as coal output has fallen to the lowest level since 1975.
The attorneys general warned that the proposal could allow LNG unit trains of up to 100 cars operated by just one person. They said LNG - natural gas that is super-cooled into a liquid for transport - sent by rail raises the risk of spills that can form highly flammable, ground-hugging vapor clouds (Read More ...)

Weather

The AccuWeather 1-5 Day Outlook forecasts above-normal temps for the Southern half of the US with the exception of California. Additionally, Utah and surrounding states will be above-normal. An area in the North-Central states from just west of the Great Lakes to Montana and south to Missouri is expected to be below-normal, with the balance of the country at normal temps.

The 6-10 Day Outlook forecasts above-normal temps for the the Western half of the US and the Great Lakes area. The entire Eastern Seaboard and Gulf States are expected to be at below-normal temps with the balance of the country at normal temps.

The 11-15 Day Outlook forecasts above-normal temps for the Eastern quarter of the country, plus Eastern California and Nevada. Below-normal temps are expected in a swath from the North-Central states through the middle of Texas.

The 30-Day Outlook shows below-normal temps on a "V" from Maine to Washington state, dipping to Missouri.The Gulf states and East Coast states to North Carolina are expected to be at above-normal temps.

The 90-Day Outlook shows above-normal temps for the  Florida, California, Oregon and Nevada. Below-normal temps are excepted for an area from Eastern Montana to Maine, south to Northern Missouri. The balance of the country is expected to be at normal temps. 

Severe Weather: Significant Precipitation is expected over the next 5 days in the Far-West through the middle of California, as well as an area from Texas through the Great Lakes. Northern New England and the West will see snowfall
(Read More ...)

Sustainable and Renewable Energy 


Advanced Simulation Tools for Vortex Bladeless Wind Power: Through the use of cutting-edge simulation, software engineers are developing innovative new wind energy technology and increasing the efficiency and durability of wind turbines. The drive to find sustainable energy sources is one of the most pressing concerns facing society. The development of advanced sustainable energy sources offers not only an increase in power and efficiency of energy generation, but also an alternative to fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel resources are becoming scarcer and so renewable sources such as wind and solar power are providing more power than ever before. The UK, for example, has set a target of 20 per cent of its total energy being produced by renewable sources by 2020.

Increasing the efficiency of technologies like solar panels and wind turbines is a key challenge to the success of renewable energy sources, along with production and manufacturing costs.

The use of modeling and simulation software offers path towards innovation as large-scale simulation can be employed to help design new systems and increase the efficiency of existing technologies to make them more economically viable.

At the UK Altair Technology Conference (ATC) 2019, David Yáñez, co-founder of Spanish tech-startup, Vortex Bladeless, presented the company’s design for a new wind energy technology. One of the key characteristics of this system is the reduction of mechanical elements that can be worn by friction. The company developed the technology using CFD tools provided by Altair, which helped the company study both the fluid-structure interaction and the behaviour of the magnetic
(Read More ...)

This Week's Key Take-Away


This past Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently issued its January edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), including for the first time energy forecasts for 2021.

EIA forecasts that the United States will continue to be a net exporter of total crude oil and petroleum products; renewable energy generation will grow from a 17% share of U.S. electricity generation in 2019 to 22% in 2021; and the energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 2.0% in 2020 and by 1.5% in 2021.

“While our energy production and exports continue to soar, we are simultaneously leading the world in reducing energy-related carbon emissions. Data released today by EIA projects the U.S. will continue this trend, predicting further CO2 emissions reductions in 2020 and 2021,” said Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette.

U.S. dry natural gas production set a new record in 2019, averaging 92 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will rise to 94.7 Bcf/d in 2020 and then decline to 94.1 Bcf/d in 2021. Production in the Appalachian region drives the forecast as it shifts from growth in 2020 to declining production in 2021.

The EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will remain relatively steady; it was 37% in 2019, and EIA forecasts it will be 38% in 2020 and 37% in 2021.

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources rises from a share of 17% last year to 19% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. The increase in the renewables share is the result of expected additions to wind and solar generating capacity.